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Commodity Prices
Apr 7, 2026 · EIA / investing.com / KplerWTI Crude
$114.30
▲ +95% YoY
Brent Crude
$117.50
▲ Brent–WTI spread ~$3
Henry Hub
$3.80
— /MMBtu · 2026 avg fcst
TTF (Europe)
~€55
▲ +100% since Feb 28
Asian LNG spot
+140%
▲ vs pre-conflict
EIA Brent Q2 peak
$115
Falls ~$90 in Q4 (base)
WTI Crude 2026 ($/bbl)
EIA · investing.com
LNG Benchmarks ($/MMBtu)
EIA · Kpler · TradingNews
Iran War & Strait of Hormuz
Situation log · Apr 7, 2026Key Developments
Apr 6–7
Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal. Hormuz remains blocked. Trump threatens escalation "in 2–3 weeks." 35-nation London summit convened on reopening the strait. Brent hovering $111–117.
Apr 2
WTI spikes to $111.29; Brent $107.57 — inverting the normal benchmark structure. Trump: "Take the Oil, Make a Fortune." WTI posts 3.5-week high.
Mar 31
Iran signals willingness to negotiate but demands ironclad non-attack guarantees. Trump: ceasefire conditional on Hormuz reopening. Prices dip briefly, then reverse.
Mar 18
Iran strikes Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex. 17% of Qatar's capacity offline. Raymond James: 3–5 year repair timeline. QatarEnergy declares force majeure on all exports.
Mar 4
Strait of Hormuz fully closed. 9.1M b/d shut-in by Apr (Iraq, Saudi, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar). 20% of global oil + ~23% of global LNG disrupted.
Feb 28
US–Israel military strikes on Iran begin. Iran retaliates against Gulf states. Hormuz closure follows within 4 days. Brent had been at $61 in January.
Disruption Metrics
Hormuz blockade status
CLOSED
Global crude oil supply disrupted
~9.1M b/d
Global LNG supply disrupted
~20–23%
Qatar Ras Laffan damage
17% offline / 3–5 yr
Middle East crude shut-ins (Apr est.)
9.1M b/d
EIA base case: conflict ends
by late Apr 2026
EIA Brent Q2 2026 peak forecast
$115/b
EIA Brent Q4 2026 forecast (base)
<$90/b
US retail diesel peak (Apr est.)
~$5.80/gal
Peace talks / ceasefire
STALLED
IEA assessment
"greatest energy challenge in history"
Puerto Rico · PREPA · NFE
Risk monitor · updated Apr 7, 2026Risk Factors
NFE bankruptcy / restructuring
CRITICAL
NFE 7-yr GSA continuity (→ Dec 2032)
ELEVATED
Genera O&M termination exposure
ELEVATED
LNG sourced Altamira, MX (not Hormuz)
INSULATED
Henry Hub pricing (US domestic supply)
STABLE ~$3.80
Global LNG spot contagion risk
WATCH
PREPA Title III debt restructuring
ONGOING
Diesel fallback if gas supply interrupted
CRITICAL EXPOSURE
NFE volume push: 24 → 125 TBtu in PR
SKEPTICAL (IEEFA)
Henry Hub Q3–Q4 risk ($4–6 if war persists)
CONDITIONAL
NFE–PREPA Outcome Scenarios
Continuity — New NFE
Restructuring completes, GSA intact through Dec 2032
45%
Renegotiation
PR uses bankruptcy window to reset terms
25%
Supply disruption
NFE fails; gap period before new supplier
20%
Accelerated renewables
PR pivots faster to distributed solar + storage
10%
Key structural buffer: Puerto Rico's LNG is sourced from NFE's Altamira, Mexico Fast LNG facility — not the Persian Gulf. Direct Hormuz exposure is minimal. Dominant risk is NFE's financial stability and contractual continuity under Title III constraints. If conflict persists into winter 2026–27, Henry Hub could move toward $4–6, feeding directly into Altamira contract pricing.
NFE / PREPA Timeline
Dec 2025
NFE files for bankruptcy. Restructuring splits company into Brazil entity + "New NFE" holding PR contracts (GSA + Genera O&M). Per 2023 O&M agreement, Genera contract is terminable upon voluntary bankruptcy filing. IEEFA raises cancellation question.
Sep 2025
New 7-year GSA executed (→ Dec 2032), FOMB approved. 80 TBtu island-wide supply. LNG sourced from NFE's Fast LNG facility in Altamira, Mexico (1.4 MMTPA capacity, operational Q4 2024). Critical structural insulation from Hormuz disruption.
Mar 2025
Prior 80 TBtu contract amended to 100-day extension to allow RFP process. Genera O&M modified: $110M payment eliminates future incentive payments.
IEEFA
Skeptical of NFE's 125 TBtu PR target. Actual volumes ~24 TBtu/yr over last 12 months. Post-bankruptcy New NFE may pressure PREPA to absorb increased volumes to shore up NFE's balance sheet — potential conflict with PREPA's Title III payment capacity.
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Henry Hub: US domestic — insulated from Hormuz
TTF / Asian LNG: acute crisis pricing
NFE–PREPA: financial risk dominant
EIA base case: conflict resolves late Apr
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